FOUR DAYS OUT: A data analysis on 4 key Senate races

Thanks to your help, Republicans are closing the AB/EV gap.

Nov 01, 2024

With only four days left until Election Day, it is already clear that Republicans have changed the narrative on early and mail-in voting this cycle. This is largely due to your help as grassroots Americans, spending time talking to friends and family members not only about the top issues this cycle but also about the different opportunities Americans have to make their voices heard at the ballot box.

As we look into the official data and our own modeling, we’re seeing strong trends indicating likely Republican voters are turning out at higher levels than previous election cycles. This is especially true for low propensity voters (voters who haven’t historically voted in every election). At the same time, we’ve seen lower numbers on the Left when it comes to voter registration and early turnout.

Below is a breakdown of what we’re seeing from the official data layered with Sentinel Action Fund’s models as of midnight last night (October 31). These numbers show likely partisan returns for key Senate battleground states.

NOTE: We use the official state Board of Elections Report of who has voted and layer it with our internal data models to determine a voter’s likely partisan lean. The voter model is built on dozens of learnings including commercial data, geography, and propensity. In short, the state tells us who has voted, and the model tells us how each person likely voted.

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania is a race where Democrats had a large and fortified head-start due to their previous work enrolling their voters on the permanent absentee voter list. In fact, at the start of this year, Democrats had an estimated 1,431,596 voters on the permanent absentee list, while Republicans had only 437,340.

However, thanks to your work on the ground, Republicans have added another 240,000 voters to the list in 2024, of which, 42% are low-propensity voters. Other GOP voters opted to request a mail-in ballot for 2024, but not add their names to the permanent absentee list.

In 2022, Dems voted early at a rate for 4.1 to every 1 GOP voter. In 2024, that ratio is down to 1.74 Dems to every 1 GOP voter. In terms of absolute votes, we currently estimate the Democrats’ lead from 2022 has been reduced by 47.8%.

Senator Bob Casey isn’t campaigning with Kamala Harris and he’s running TV ads touting his support for President Trump’s policies. His team is seeing what we are seeing — Bob Casey is likely to go into Election Day with half the lead that John Fetterman had just two years ago.

Looking at just the returned ballots, we see that only half the GOP’s early voters are reliable 4/4 voters. In other words, 250,000 of Dave McCormick’s likely early votes are low-propensity voters – people who don’t always cast a ballot. This is important, because these efforts are not simply “rescheduling” reliable Election Day voters to vote early; we are turning out new voters!

By focusing on low-propensity voters and encouraging them to vote early, your work has helped boost McCormick’s eventual total by tens of thousands of votes. Many of you helped these efforts on the ground, using the Numinar app to make sure your family members and friends requested absentee ballots

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OHIO

For the past five weeks Sentinel Action Fund has fielded weekly surveys to track the Senate race in Ohio. The results of the past two weeks show undecided voters breaking in Bernie Moreno’s favor.

Our model reflects this development and puts Moreno in a more favorable position headed into Election Day than polling from early October led many to project. When factoring in mail ballots that have been requested, but are not yet returned, Moreno has a likely lead of 12,548 votes.

However, this figure does not factor in 6.5% of returned ballots that the model can’t reliably assign to either candidate with a high degree of confidence, and so it’s fair to view the Ohio Senate race as something closer to a statistical tie. This should also be a reminder that we have to keep the momentum going on the ground through Election Day!

The good news is that Moreno is likely to still increase his vote share headed into Election Day. Sherrod Brown performs better among mail-in ballots, but the period to request an absentee ballot ended on October 29th. Brown’s advantage is thus capped and will not grow. Meanwhile, Moreno performs better among early, in-person voting, which continues through November 3rd. This means tens of thousands of new votes for three more days, with the results likely skewed in Moreno’s favor.

Below, one can see that roughly 40% of early votes for Moreno are from lower propensity voters – this will be massively helpful to send Bernie Moreno into Election Day in the strongest position possible.

In 2022, Tim Ryan led J.D. Vance in the early vote, but J.D. Vance ended up winning by 6%. In 2024, Sherrod Brown has the incumbency advantage that Tim Ryan lacked, but Bernie Moreno appears to have a better early vote position than J.D. Vance. And ultimately, having Trump at the top of the ticket helps Moreno and hurts Brown.

MONTANA

In 2022, 80% of Montanans voted early. With a relatively small percent of Election Day voters compared to most states, it’s very important for Tim Sheehy to take the lead during early voting.

The good news is that our model shows Tim Sheehy likely has a 5% lead. Sheehy’s numerical advantage increases slightly when accounting for mail ballots that have been requested but not yet returned.

Sentinel Action Fund focused heavily on early voting in Montana because we know it is critical to Sheehy’s success. Sentinel Action Fund also spent months knocking doors to reach voters and cut through the noise in a politically saturated environment.

Looking at the data and our model, there is no propensity group of voters that Tester is clearly winning, and it looks like Tim Sheehy is heading into Election Day exactly where he needs to be in order to win.

NEVADA

Our model shows Sam Brown is surging in Nevada; undecided voters appear to be breaking his way; the polls weren’t quite right; and Harry Reid’s ballot-harvesting machine appears to be losing its strength.

In fact, our model shows Brown with a possible lead, but a small one.

Democrats and Republicans appear to be getting ballots from the same percentage of high and low propensity voters, but Democrat Jacky Rosen’s votes are coming disproportionately through the mail.

Meanwhile, Sam Brown is winning in-person ballots at a ratio of 1.35 to 1. If the Reid machine is unable to match Republicans during early voting, it’s hard to see it mobilizing for an Election Day surge. There is good reason to believe that Sam Brown can continue to perform well through Election Day.

Brown’s early lead may be something closer to a tie, but the thought of going into Election Day in a dead heat with the Democrats has Nevada Republicans cautiously optimistic.

With the final days ahead, we are preparing for the possibility of a close race and are already positioning our team to assist with ballot curing efforts.

WHAT TO DO NEXT

Go vote!!! These GOP Senate candidates are in a strong position heading into Election Day, but we need to keep turning out likely Republican voters! Rest assured the Democrats see these numbers too and will do everything they can to increase the pace of their returns before Election Day.

Use the Numinar app to double check and make sure your friends and family members have returned their ballots or have voted early. Talk to your neighbors who may not be politically engaged and explain how important this year’s elections are for the future.

Together, we can work to build a strong Senate majority and give President Trump effective partners in Congress. There is so much at stake this year and we are all appreciative of your dedicated help over the past year.

Time for the final stretch!

Nov 1st Update

24 hours later, and number still continue to come in strong for our candidates. Here’s what our models tell us as of 10 p.m. on November 1st:

In Montana, Sheehy now has a likely 17,535 vote lead (23,007 if you count unreturned mail ballots).
Bucks County, PA finished in-person early voting on Friday. With those ballots reported and all the other mail-in ballots from the state, Democrats now have a likely 395,382 vote advantage.
In Ohio, Bernie Moreno has a 40,032 vote advantage among ballots cast. That likely advantage narrows to 21,456 when factoring in unreturned mail ballots.
Nevada is still extremely close. We think Sam Brown has a likely 3,322 vote lead.