How the 2026 Midterm Elections Could Shift the Overton Window for the First Time
In life, there are only three certaintees we can all agree on: death, taxes, and the sitting president’s party will experience backlash in the midterm elections. Even popular presidents like Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama experienced it in 1986 and 2010, respectively. President Donald Trump and the new Republican party, however, have the ability to buck this trend–and I believe they will.
Although it seems far off, voters head to the ballot box in 560 days for the midterm elections. Republicans have the playbook to win seats in Congress, not lose them, in 2026.
Consider the recent special elections. While the liberal media and even some on the right may have bought into the argument that the lost judicial race in Wisconsin and low turnout in the off-cycle congressional races were a rebuke against President Trump and Elon Musk, the facts tell a different story.
Despite the tens of millions of dollars the Democrats poured into elections in Florida and Wisconsin, the status quo didn’t change. In Florida, Republicans maintained both seats. In Wisconsin, the Supreme Court seat at stake was previously won and occupied by a left-wing judge. That incumbent judge, after Democrats spent an absurd amount of money, will simply keep her seat on the court.
Many of the factors that helped Republicans maintain the status quo in April were the same factors that contributed to a Republican landslide victory in 2024. These factors can also shape the upcoming 2026 election cycle.
In the past month, Sentinel Action Fund began surveying low propensity voters who were key to delivering the White House and Congress to Republicans.
And what do these voters want? We’ve found these voters want a pro-American immigration and border policy, a pro-American jobs economic agenda, a government that represents American values, and a Republican-controlled Congress that keeps radical Democrats out of leadership positions Republicans in Congress need to ensure they do not lose sight of these issues. They also want leaders who will “fix what needs fixing, and break what needs breaking.”
Where conservatives could make a mistake is to assume these voters will only turnout for someone named Donald J. Trump.
Just as importantly, the President’s policy agenda will be on the ballot as will the first test of whether 2024 low-propensity voters feel their vote mattered. Have these first time voters seen the direction of the country change from the previous Biden regime? Do they feel their communities are safe and secure, their cost of living reasonable and elected officials fighting for them?
Republicans would be wise to let Democrats continue to fly to El Salvador to try and free a violent MS-13 gang member from prison. The voters needed for a Republican victory see that, and get excited to vote again.
Our poll found that low propensity voters in Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia – important 2026 Senate battleground states – are ready and willing to turn out in 2026 for candidates who will work to advance the America First work of President Trump.
When we asked these voters if they are planning to vote in the upcoming 2026 elections, 83% are at least very likely to vote with 59% are definitely voting. Another 9% are somewhat likely to vote. We then asked why they were planning to turnout in 2026 without Trump being able to vote for Trump himself and 48% said they were planning to vote for candidates who would expand the GOP majorities or who had Trump’s endorsement. 90% of these voters were more likely to vote for a candidate who supported Trump’s pro-American policies.
The expanded coalition of voters who turned out in 2024 for Trump and other GOP candidates will turnout again in 2026 if Republican candidates 1) prove they are offering new leadership for our country and 2) communicate that vision early when low propensity voters are making up their minds and casting ballots.
Democrats have historically owned early and low propensity voting space. Not anymore. These voters are ready and willing to cast ballots for new Republican leadership who will follow through on delivering an America First government.
And Republican candidates who embrace these values will get support from organizations like Sentinel Action Fund. Our goal is to be a conduit for conservative candidates to engage these low propensity voters. We are already working to ensure these voters have the accurate information they need to cast ballots for their candidates in November 2026.
If Republicans hold true to the mandate they were just given in November, this expanded coalition will show up again next year and might even expand representation in Congress and across our states.
There is no need to cower and vacillate at this moment. Conservative voters spoke loudly and clearly and they will speak again.