Special Elections and the National Mood

What should we learn from the wins in Florida and the loss in Wisconsin?

Taking stock after last night’s special elections, it is important to keep in mind several factors which are true of special elections. Special congressional elections, and in the case of Wisconsin an off-cycle judicial election, while drawing significant media attention, often fail to accurately reflect the overall national mood of voters in the United States. These elections are subject to unique circumstances that can skew results and make them poor indicators of broader political trends.

Ohio’s 6th congressional district is a perfect example. It had both a special and a general election in 2024, with a 12-point swing in the margin of victory for Republican Michael Rulli. (Credit to Jeremiah Poff of the DC examiner for flagging these races on X).

But why the lower turnout for Republicans last night?

With President Trump’s reelection in the rear view and Republicans firmly in control of Washington, D.C., turnout was lower overall and substantially lower than November 2024 on the Republican side of the ledger. Given the unified control of the federal government, voters who otherwise would have voted in support of candidates in line with Trump and America first policies did not cast their ballots.

In the lead up to last night, the Left was hyping the possibility of using these elections as the first stand against President Trump and an opportunity to drive a wedge between the president and congressional Republicans. They pitched these elections as a referendum on the president and raked in tens of millions of dollars from left wing donors.

Last night’s election results were also impacted by their timing. The national, left-wing media and their Democrat allies have been losing their minds over Trump’s moves to rein in an out-of-control federal government. This dominant storyline has been the main talking point of the national press and fed into the massive effort by outside ideological groups attempting to advance their agenda.

All of these components were at work and pushing these elections in the direction of the Left. And yet, with all of the bluster and all of the outsized attention and all of the money poured into these races from left-wing activist donors, the Democrats have only the status quo to show for their efforts.

In Florida, both of the congressional seats at stake were previously won and represented by Republicans. Now, after last night’s elections, they will remain represented by Republicans.

In Wisconsin, the supreme court seat at stake was previously won and occupied by a left-wing judge. That incumbent judge, after Democrats poured tens of millions of dollars into that race, will simply keep her seat on the court.

Democrat activists posing as journalists and talking heads will attempt to extrapolate a story of Americans in revolt against President Trump.

Do not believe their lies.

All of the energy, all of the money, all of the angst and division they sowed in the lead up to last night resulted in the maintenance of the status quo.

On the right, some are wringing their hands over a lost judicial race and low turnout in the congressional special elections. They are playing into the Left’s narrative by openly worrying about what the results mean for 2026.

Do not follow this illogical cowardice.

President Trump and Republicans in Congress should not be swayed by any of the results last night. Nothing that happened last night is anything similar to the special election in 2010 to replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy. In that election, a Republican won a Senate seat in Massachusetts for the first time since the 1970s, breaking the back of the Democrat super majority in the U.S. Senate and previewing the wave election later that year. THAT was a special election that mattered.

Last night was not at all like the special election in Massachusetts in 2010. There are no lessons to be learned about the national mood or how the overall electorate is viewing President Trump and his agenda. In fact, it is more logical to view last night’s results as an encouragement to keep moving forward with President Trump’s efforts to ensure we have a government which is responsive and working in the best interests of Americans first and foremost.

Successful candidates in 2026 will look to the recent general election results in 2024 and not these off-cycle elections in April 2025.

While special congressional elections can be interesting political events, they should not be taken as definitive indicators of the national mood. The low turnout, perceived low stakes, timing, and outside influences all contribute to making these elections poor barometers of broader political trends. General elections, with their higher participation and wider range of issues, provide a much more accurate reflection of how the American public feels about the direction of the country.

Do not be fooled by the Democrats' spin from last night. Democrats should not take heart, and Republicans should not lose heart.

We are only three months into a decisive mandate, and Republicans should keep delivering.

And we will be there for them in 2026, expanding Republican majorities and keeping the momentum going.