The Mystery of Democrats’ Absent “Absentee Voters”
Democrats are currently 1 million absentee votes short in Pennsylvania
First, please go vote today if you have not already — your vote is needed!
In this cycle, a significant shift has emerged: Republican candidates — including Donald Trump — embraced early voting, and many of their voters listened. Early voting among Republicans has drastically increased since 2022.
Republican voters are turning out in record numbers; many of these voters rarely or have never voted! If you are interested in how Republicans accomplished this, scroll back through this substack and read about the work Sentinel Action Fund and others have done.
Meanwhile, Democrats are scrambling; Their base of early voters didn’t show up like expected. Democrat campaigns are on red alert — where are their voters?
Tonight's results will provide the answer. There’s really only two options:
Either Democrats face a major enthusiasm and turnout issue, or
Like Republicans, Democrats have changed their behavior, and a greater number are now showing up on Election Day.
To see just how pronounced Democrats’ problem is, look at Pennsylvania, the swing state where Democrats’ had the largest built-in advantage. It also happens to be the pivotal state for the Presidential election and a state where Sentinel Action Fund has been working all year to help elect Dave McCormick to the Senate.
The “Blue Wall” Has Crumbled in Pennsylvania
At the start of this year, Democrats had an estimated 1,431,596 voters on Pennsylvania’s permanent Absentee Voter List, while Republicans had only 437,340 — the commonwealth of Pennsylvania proactively mailed an Annual Ballot Application to these voters to request absentee ballots for the year. Already, one sees the huge structural advantage with which Democrats started.
To counter it, Sentinel Action Fund worked in a coalition with the RSLC and Keystone Renewal to add another 240,000 GOP voters to the list in 2024, of which, 42% are low-turnout voters. Other voters we reached opted to request a mail-in ballot for 2024, but not add their names to the perm AB list. (Importantly, we didn’t simply convert reliable Election Day voters into early voters. Instead, we reached out to low turnout voters to bank their ballots sooner).
In 2020, 3.34 Democrats voted early for every 1 Republican voter in Pennsylvania. In 2022, that figure grew to 4.10 to 1.
In 2024, it’s down to 1.69 to 1.
While Republicans increased their early vote numbers, Democrats flatlined. 2022 was not a presidential year, and Democrats are just barely surpassing their 2022 numbers in 2024. Their goal was to come close to 2020 levels for early turnout. They’re 1 million votes short!
Where are these absent Democrats absent voters? Why aren’t they voting absentee!?
How many of these missing 1 million Democrats will show up on Election Day in Pennsylvania?
That’s what everyone is watching for and waiting to see.
It’s not just Pennsylvania — It’s Ohio and Nevada too.
Sentinel Action Fund has been working all year to drive early voting for Republican Senate Candidates in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and Montana. We reached out to low turnout voters 30-60 times to help get their ballots in early. And the results have been a staggering success.
In all four of these races, there are incumbent Democrat Senators facing challenges from new Republican candidates. Unseating incumbents is hard, but Republicans are poised to do it.
In the following chart, we use the state Board of Elections Report of who has voted and layer it with our internal data to estimate partisan returns. In short, the state tells us who has voted, and the model tells us how each person likely voted.
REMEMBER: Our goal was not to match Democrats one for one, though in Ohio and Montana we did just that, but rather to cut into the lead Democrats historically have had going into Election Day.
By all measures, this effort was a success. Our work among early voters has kept every race in contention going into Election Day:
In Montana, victory is within reach for Republican Tim Sheehy. Montana has a small population, so 20,000 votes is significant and our model shows Sheehy with a 5% lead going into Election Day.
In Nevada and Ohio, the early vote is much closer. As of this morning, Republicans and Democrats are close to a statistical tie in both states. But this is a good omen for Republicans, who traditionally started off Election Day far behind in votes.
By recruiting low turnout Republicans to become early voters, we’ve kept it competitive during the early vote period. If Republican voters show up today at the polls — as they historically have — they can deliver victories for Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Sam Brown in Nevada.
There’s only one real caveat — like with Pennsylvania, Democrats have “missing early voters” in Ohio and Nevada. Have these Democrat voters shifted from early voting to Election Day? Or are they just not showing up?
These missing voters are significant:
In Ohio, Democrats are 537,841 early votes short of their 2020 early vote total.
In Nevada, they are 77,173 early votes shy from 2020.
In Pennsylvania, they are roughly 1 million short.
One last point I wish to strongly emphasize — Republican victories tonight should not be dismissed as simply “Democrats staying home.” Republican enthusiasm is sky-high and the partnerships and the early work to get out the vote has been tremendous. Our numbers among early voters and low frequency voters are better than ever.
But there is no mystery with the Republican vote — you can see it — it’s showing up! The only reason anyone thinks this election could be close is if these missing Democrat voters decide to show up too. If they don’t, Republicans will have a good Election Day.
Key Counties to Watch Tonight
Our robust absentee-early vote programs for Republicans have concluded, and now we turn to Election Day.
To gauge party performance, we're monitoring key counties, assessing whether President Trump exceeds past results as a benchmark. Recall, across many Senate battleground states, the Senate candidate has actually trailed Trump by 1 to 3 points. Therefore, Trump’s victory is a leading indicator - not final - to whether the Senate candidate wins.
We’re categorizing counties to watch into four groups:
Urban Centers – Where Democrats typically build leads but have shown lower than expected absentee and early voting (ABEV) turnout.
Pivot Counties – Indicators of statewide results.
Suburban and Exurban Areas – Key for Republican performance.
Regional Specifics – Additional dynamics unique to each state.
Pennsylvania
With heavy mail voting, Pennsylvania’s initial returns favor Democrats, but not by their historical levels. We have successfully cut their blue wall by 46% heading into Election Day. And, GOP support will strengthen as Election Day votes come in.
Urban Centers: Alleghany & Pittsburgh are key for Democratic turnout.
Pivot Counties: Erie & Northampton are historical swing counties; early results here are pivotal.
Suburban/Exurban Areas: Trump’s performance in the Philly DMA may reveal suburban support or opposition.
Coal Belt & Central PA: Strong GOP areas with Democratic history and close margins.
Ohio
We expect Trump to carry Ohio by 7-9%. Since Ohio is no longer a presidential battleground state, the Democrats are experiencing a major turnout problem amongst their base which will impact the turnout for Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown.
Pivot Counties: Montgomery & Lorain are swing counties that signal statewide trends.
Urban Centers (Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus): Key for Democrats, especially in Franklin County.
Union Belt Counties: Historically Democratic but trending GOP. Essential for Moreno’s margin.
Montana
Expect approximately 80% of the vote to come in absentee. Based on our internal models, Sheehy is likely leading by roughly 20,000 votes heading into Election Day. Of the voters remaining, Sheehy is projected to win the majority, hopefully securing a quick victory.
Nevada
Every registered voter in Nevada is automatically mailed an absentee ballot, and there was also in-person, early voting available. Current projections show Republicans and Democrats in a statistical tie among early votes. Election Day turnout is critical to GOP success.
In a very close race, final results for Nevada may not be known for days. In most states, absentee ballots must be received by Election Day, but in Nevada, they must only be postmarked by Election Day and can be received up to four days later (November 9, 2024).
This timeline is further lengthened because Nevada law allows voters to “cure” any errors with their absentee ballot until November 12, 2024. Any election night results that come down to just a few thousand votes will turn Nevada into an extended race to cure ballots and potentially swing the election.
If you made it this far, then you’re also likely to be up late tonight watching the election returns come in. Be sure to follow us on X @SentinelAction - and you can also follow me @JessAnderson2.